North Shore Views

Winnetka Real Estate Trends

Here’s the data for Winnetka home sales through December 2009. It’s a mixed bag but generally heading in the right direction: sales are up and inventory is down, both good things for sellers. Prices are lower than 2008 but the downward trend we’ve seen over the last couple of years appears to be stabilizing.

Winnetka Home Sales
A total of 19 homes (single family houses, townhouses and condos) sold in December 2009, up 111% over December 2008 and 137% over the prior month. Total 2009 sales of 157 was comparable to 2008 sales of 158. Sales, which had been improving since mid-summer had slowed in November with the anticipated expiration of the new home buyer tax credit. Once that was renewed and expanded, sales picked up again in December.

Prices
The average sales price in December was $1,247,233, down 33% vs. December 2008 but up 23% from last month’s average price of $1,010,438. Although average and median prices bounce around from month to month, the rolling 3 month average indicates that the downward trend in prices has stabilized.

Inventory and Months Supply
Inventory of properties for sale in December was 178, down 13% from December 2008 and down 13% vs. November 2009. Months supply of inventory was 9.4 months. This means that it would take 9.4 months to sell all the houses on the market at the current rate of sale. This is the lowest level since April 2007, which is good news for sellers. Months supply had reached a high of 86 months in April 2009, which was the absolute low point for real estate sales in Winnetka.

Market Time
Days on market for December was 91, down 43% vs. December of last year. What this says is that sellers are now pricing their homes more realistically and buyers are getting off the fence and buying.

Related Posts

• What’s Ahead for North Shore Real Estate

Tags: North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends, Winnetka

North Shore Home Sales – 2009 Summary

Here’s the data for North Shore single family home sales for total year 2009 vs. 2008. The year-end snapshot doesn’t tell the whole story, though, since the market was pretty dead in the first half of 2009 and only started picking up in the second half of the year. So, the trend in units sold is actually much more positive than the total year number indicates. Unfortunately, the improved sales trend has also been accompanied by lower prices and longer market time.

North Shore Detached Homes Sold 2009 vs.. 2008:

	2009	2008	% Chg
Units sold	2642	2523	+5%
Avg. List Price	$756,918	$879,722	-14%
Avg. Sold Price	$627,741	$774,503	-19%
% List Price Rec’d	83%	88%	-6%
Avg. Mkt Time Closed	202 days	178 days	+13%

Source: MRED- Deemed reliable but not guaranteed

Tags: North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends

What's Ahead for North Shore Real Estate?

Predicting the future is popular at this time of year and, when it comes to real estate, there is no shortage of opinions about what’s ahead for 2010. Some economists, like Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors, are fairly optimistic about the housing market’s prospects. Others, like Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com, are downright pessimistic. Since real estate is my livelihood, I would like to believe Lawrence Yun, but unfortunately his track record hasn’t been all that great, so his predictions need to be taken with a grain of salt (or two).

Having read the economists’ and other experts’ reports and scrutinized the local market data, I’ve come to my own conclusions about how the North Shore will or won’t reflect what’s going on nationally:

1. On a national level, sales will continue the positive momentum begun in mid 2009, at least through May, as buyers take advantage of the tax credits, low interest rates and attractive prices. This will hold true for the North Shore of Chicago too, but much of the activity in our area will be at the lower end of the market (<$800,000). And once the tax credit expires this summer, the market will probably stall again,  at least temporarily.

2. Based on recent trends, I think that prices will decline another 2-3% over the next three to six months, before stabilizing. So, if potential sellers are waiting to see if prices will rebound before listing their homes, they are in for a long wait. It will take at least five years (and probably more) before we see prices anywhere near 2006 levels.

3. The Fed will do its darnedest keep interest rates low for as long as it can to avoid sabotaging the recovery;  but we should expect rates to rise somewhat, probably to around 6%, later in 2010.

4. Foreclosures have not been as big a problem on the North Shore as elsewhere, but we are not out of the woods yet. We will likely see an increase in short sales and foreclosures as adjustable rate mortgages reset and those who took bigger risks when the market was good find themselves unable to refinance now. Unemployment in the neighborhood of 10% will continue to plague us at least through mid-year, putting a further drag on the housing recovery.

5. New construction of spec homes will be at a virtual standstill until existing inventory works its way through the system. Builders just can’t compete with the discounted prices of distressed properties and will be unwilling to build without a buyer lined up in advance.

6. The shift away from McMansions towards smaller, more efficient and greener homes will accelerate, driven by first time buyers and downsizing empty nesters.

I certainly hope that my predictions turn out to have been too pessimistic. That is,  except the one about the McMansions. I, for one, would be happy never to see another McMansion built again.

Tags: Home prices North Shore, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate market predictions, North Shore real estate trends

North Shore Market Update – December 2009

In December 2009 sales of single family homes on the North Shore were up 32% vs. December 2008, while average prices were down 8%. Market time increased 21% to 200 days for sold properties.

Average prices declined in all towns except Glenview and Glencoe. Winnetka and Northfield had the largest price declines AND the largest increase in units sold, so price does seem to be the biggest driver in the market today.

Wilmette was the only town were there were fewer units sold in 2009 than 2008.

December 2009 vs. Year Ago*

	Units Sold	Avg. Price	Market Time
Town	% Change	% Chg	% Chg
Evanston	6%	-24%	20%
Wilmette	-22%	-14%	28%
Glenview	25%	16%	19%
Northfield	200%	-73%	159%
Winnetka	138%	-39%	-1%
Glencoe	38%	15%	69%
Highland Park	22%	-4%	-18%
Lake Forest	67%	-1%	25%
North Shore	32%	-8%	21%

* Single family homes (Source: MRED – Deemed reliable but not guaranteed)

Tags: Evanston, Glencoe, Glenview, Highland Park, Kenilworth, Lake Forest, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends, Northfield, Wilmette, Winnetka

Wilmette Housing Trends 2007-2009

For all the data wonks in Wilmette, here are three years of housing data for our town as a whole and for some of the individual neighborhoods. The source is MRED, which is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Also, note that the data for the specific neighborhoods may not reflect all activity…unless the neighborhood was called out in the MLS listing, the transaction would only show up in the total Wilmette numbers.

Wilmette

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold) 000’s	Avg. Sales Price 000’s	Sold /List Price	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	316	$1,023.1	$970.8	95%	132
2008	244	$984.7	$912.4	93%	150
2009	214	$834.1	$770.4	92%	168

McKenzie

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List Price	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	5	$1,189.8	$1,155.0	97%	74
2008	2	$709.4	$677.5	96%	65
2009	2	$680.0	$687.5	101%	11

Kenilworth Gardens

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List Price	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	15	$1,005.8	$982.3	98%	38
2008	10	1,044.1	982.9	94%	119
2009	17	835.2	778.2	93%	140

Indian Hill Estates

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List Price	Days on Market  (Sold)
2007	10	$1,385.4	$1,287.9	93%	125
2008	1	1,225.0	1,130.0	92%	158
2009	8	1,261.0	1,132.8	90%	338

The CAGE

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	4	$1,126.0	$1,075.8	96%	48
2008	5	1,301.0	1,225.8	94%	168
2009	9	1,109.5	1,019.2	92%	90

East Wilmette

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	15	$1,165.7	$1,100.6	94%	102
2008	8	2,062.4	1,932.4	94%	124
2009	6	1,237.3	1,149.4	93%	83

Tags: North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, Wilmette, Wilmette neighborhoods

North Shore Housing Inventory Snapshot – December 1, 2009

Here’s a snapshot of what’s on the market right now, including list prices and time on market. Not surprisingly, there seems to be a direct correlation between price level and time on market, with Winnetka, Kenilworth and Lake Forest being the priciest markets and also the ones where market time is longest, at well over 300 days.

Town	# Units for Sale*	Median List Price	Average List Price	Average D.O.M.
Evanston	225	$514,000	$695,154	240
Wilmette	155	$710,000	$887,632	280
Glenview	380	$664,950	$792,208	263
Northfield	64	$732,000	$885,750	314
Kenilworth	43	$1,899,000	$2,183,942	336
Winnetka	176	$1,499,000	$1,970,967	339
Glencoe	98	$1,099,450	$1,813,779	259
Highland Park	345	$679,000	$1,027,431	287
Lake Forest	316	$1,250,000	$1,911,778	320
North Shore	1802	$799,000	$1,236,879	288

* Detached single family houses (Source: MRED)

Tags: Glencoe, Glenview, Kenilworth, Lake Forest, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, Northfield, Real estate, Wilmette, Winnetka

North Shore Market Update for October-November 2009

The market continues to show signs of improvement, driven by the expansion of the tax credit, continued low interest rates and attractive prices. Sales of detached single family homes on the North Shore were up 34% in October-November over the same period last year, an even stronger performance than last month’s report. Another positive sign is that the number of active listings at the end of October decreased by 11% vs. the end of July, suggesting that we are starting to work through the high inventory of homes on the market. Prices, on the other hand, continue to be soft, down 14% on average vs. year

October-November 2009 vs. Year Ago*

Town	Units Sold % Change	Avg. Price % Change	Days on Mkt% Change
Evanston	+19%	-34%	+40%
Wilmette	+65%	-12%	+2%
Glenview	+36%	-16%	+12%
Northfield	+14%	+17%	+70%
Winnetka	=	+9%	-26%
Glencoe	+46%	+27%	+30%
Highland Park	+26%	-16%	-4%
Lake Forest	+72%	-47%	+76%
North Shore	+34%	-14%	+18%

* Detached single family homes (Source: MRED)

Although the numbers vary by town, there is a consistent trend, and that is that most of the buying activity is happening at the lower end of the price range. Lake Forest showed a dramatic 72% increase in sales, but it was not in the multi-million dollar homes people associate with Lake Forest. In fact almost 20% of the homes sold in Oct.-Nov of this year were in the $600,000-699,000 price range and 77% were below $1,000,000;  in 2008 only 55% of the homes sold in Lake Forest were below $1,000,000.

Glencoe also showed a healthy increase in units sold but  42% of homes sold under $600,000 in 2009 vs. 31% in 2008. The increase in average price for Glencoe this year was driven by one sale over $5,000,000.

Tags: Glencoe, Lake Forest, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends

November North Shore Market Update

North Shore real estate trends are currently a good news, bad news story.
The market is definitely inching towards a recovery, here as well as most
other markets, although the North Shore has benefited less from the first
time buyer tax credit than lower-priced markets. Sales on the North Shore
were up 21% in the latest two month period versus year ago, so reluctant
buyers are getting off the fence and things are moving again.  The not so
good news is that prices are down 7% and average time on market has
increased by 14% to 201 days. But that’s an average. Some properties are
selling quickly- those are the ones that are priced right from the
beginning, and buyers perceive a good value.

September-October 2009 vs. Year Ago*

Town	Units Sold % Change	Avg. Price % Change	Days on Mkt% Change
Evanston	+15%	-33%	+58%
Wilmette	-	-7%	-35%
Glenview	+22%	-12%	+51%
Northfield	+40%	-16%	+20%
Winnetka	-4%	-7%	+16%
Glencoe	+79%	-12%	-5%
Highland Park	+11%	-6%	-27%
Lake Forest	+119%	-3%	+12%
North Shore	+21%	-7%	+14%

* Single family homes (Source: MRED)



Tags: Evanston, Glencoe, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends, Wilmette, Winnetka