North Shore Views

North Shore Market Update – 1st Half 2010 vs. 2009

Things are definitely looking up for real estate on the North Shore of Chicago. North Shore home sales were up 72% over last year for the first half of 2010. This increased activity was accompanied by a slight increase (+2%) in the median price of homes sold. Market time decreased slightly (-2%) over last year.

Every one of the nine towns covered in the chart below showed an increase in unit sales, with the big gainers being Kenilworth (+280% off a very small base), Highland Park (+99%) and Wilmette (+85%).

Pricing was more of a mixed bag. Kenilworth, Glenview, Highland Park and Lake Forest showed healthy increases in median price, while Winnetka, Northfield and Glencoe were down.

Market time was also mixed. Wilmette, Lake Forest and Evanston showed improvement, while days on market for Kenilworth Winnetka, Northfield and Glenview continued to increase.

Are we on the road to recovery? I sure hope so. The market seems to be turning the corner, but it will continue to be impacted by unemployment and short sales/foreclosures.

North Shore Market Update – 1st Half 2010 vs. 2009*

*Source- MRED LLC. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Single family home data.

If you would like to see more North Shore real estate data, you can go here.

Tags: North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends

North Shore Market Update – May 2010

The North Shore housing market continues to improve, with May showing positive trends across three key measures: home sales, prices and market time. For the nine markets included in our North Shore total, single family detached home sales were up 42% in May over a year ago. And for the first time in many months, prices also increased, by 14% over last year. Market time decreased 4%, indicating that we are successfully working through the large inventory of homes that have been languishing on the market. The days on market number is still high at 196 days, but it’s looking a whole lot better than it has in some time.

In terms of homes sold, the big winner this month was Glencoe, which increases 333% over last May. Winnetka and Wilmette also had big increases of 150% and 125%, respectively. The only market that did not increase this month was Lake Forest.

Glencoe’s median price increased 77% over last May, driven by the fact that its only three sales in May 2009 were at a very low price point ($435,000), whereas this year the median price of the thirteen homes sold was $770,000. Glenview also had a big jump, from $368,750 last year, to $635,000 this year. Evanston had a modest increase of 9%. The other towns had odest declines.

Several markets showed decreases in time on market of homes sold: Glencoe, Northfield, Wilmette, Evanston, Highland Park and Lake Forest. Winnetka had a big increase in time on market of properties sold. This indicates that homes that had been overpriced finally came down to a realistic level and were able to sell.

North Shore Market Update – May 2010 vs. May 2009 (Source: MRED- Deemed reliable but not guaranteed)

Town	Homes Sold	% Change	Median Price	% Change	Market Time	% Change
Evanston	36	6%	483,000	9%	112	-21%
Wilmette	27	125%	542,003	-3%	140	-26%
Glenview/Golf	35	59%	635,000	72%	266	31%
Northfield	1	0%	1,000,000	-38%	514	-32%
Kenilworth	2	0%	1,317,500	-39%	335	22%
Winnetka	15	150%	952,500	-1%	243	103%
Glencoe	13	333%	770,000	77%	196	-34%
Highland Park	30	20%	445,500	-11%	183	-18%
Lake Forest	17	-6%	595,000	-11%	264	-9%
NORTH SHORE	175	42%	585,000	14%	196	-4%

Tags: North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends

North Shore Market Update – April 2010

Home sales across the North Shore were up 136% in April 2010 over April of 2009. The increase in sales was accompanied by a 15% decrease in median sold price. As sellers become more realistic about the pricing of their houses, buyers are responding. Days on market was unchanged from last year, the first time in a while that we have not seen an increase in market time over the prior year.

Every town except Glencoe had a significant increase in sales vs. last year. The biggest winners were  Winnetka and Highland Park. Winnetka, which had only 2 sales in April of 2009 (the worst month for Winnetka real estate in recent memory), had 12 ales this April. Highland Park had 8 sales last year and 42 sales this year. Highland Park also had the largest decrease in median price for sold homes. Winnetka, on the other hand, had a median price increase of 14%.

North Shore Market Update – April 2010 vs. April 2009*

Source: MRED – Deemed relaible but not guaranteed.
* Single family detached homes

Tags: North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends

Evanston Real Estate Trends – March

The signs for Evanston’s housing market are improving. Sale activity is up significantly and inventories are down, indicating a move toward a more balanced market. Although prices are down vs. last year, the rate of decrease is slowing and appears to be reaching bottom.

Evanston Home Sales

Home sales in March were up 129% over last month and up 67% over March of last year. Sales for the first quarter are running 46% ahead of the same period last year. In both 2009 and 2010, 80% of home sales were below $500,000.

Evanston Home Prices

Consistent with surrounding suburbs, the increase in sales has been accompanied by a decrease in prices. The median sales price for single family homes (houses, condos and townhomes) was $274,900, down 13% from February and down 3.2% from March of last year. The average sales price was $335,065, down 8% from February and down 3% from March of last year.

Inventory and Months Supply

There were 793 homes for sale in Evanston as of March, up 9% from last month (typical seasonality) and down 7% vs. March of last year. The months supply of homes, which indicates how long it would take to sell all of the homes that are currently on the market, was 12 months, down from 22 months last March. Although the months supply is higher than we would like to see (6-7 months is a “balanced” market), Evanston’s months supply is lower than most of the other North Shore markets.

Market Time

The average days on market (DOM) is how many days a property is on the market before it sells and an upward trend indicates a move towards a buyer’s market. The DOM for March was 113 days, up 21% from last month and up 21% vs. march of 2009.

Tags: Evanston, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends

Winnetka Real Estate Trends – March

The Winnetka housing market has picked up considerably this spring. Sale are increasing and we are working through the high inventory of homes for sale. Prices have stopped sliding, though they are still below last year and we probably won’t see them increase for a while yet.

Winnetka Home Sales

Home sales were up 7% from February 67% over last March. For the first quarter, sales are running 56% ahead of first quarter 2009 when the market was at its lowest point. Although more houses sold this year than last, a larger percentage of homes sold under $1,000,000 than last year.

Winnetka Home Prices

Prices are trending up over the past few months, but are still below this time last year. The median sales price for March was $1,065,000, which was up 10% over February but down 31% vs. last March. Average sale price was $1,734,553, up 55% from February but down 25% vs. year ago.

Inventory and Months Supply

There were 221 homes for sale in Winnetka as of March, which was up 8% over February and down almost 9% from March of last year. We would expect the inventory of homes for sale to go up in March given seasonality. The more important number is months supply, which is a measure of how long it would take to sell all the homes on the market at the current rate of sale. In March of this year the months supply of homes was 14.7 months. This is higher than we would like to see but down 44% from last March and dramatically better than April of last year when the months supply reached 86 months!

Market Time

The days on market (DOM) chart shows how long the average property is on the market before it sells. An upward trend indicates a buyer’s market, while a downward trend is a move towards a seller’s market. The DOM for March was 143 days, up 22% from February and up 34% from last March.

Tags: North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends, Winnetka

8 Signs of a Real Estate Rebound – How Is the North Shore Faring?

I read an interesting article by Amy Fontinelle in the San Francisco Chronicle last night. It was called 8 Signs of a Real Estate Rebound and in it she talked about the eight signs of a recovery and how the U.S. real estate market was doing on each of them. The 8 signs are:

1. Pending Home Sales
2. Housing Starts
3. New and Existing Home Sales
4. Home Inventory
5. Housing Affordability
6. Mortgage Applications
7. Mortgage Interest Rates
8. Real Estate Mutual Funds

Her conclusion: signals are mixed for the U.S. market as  a whole. Pending home sales are up (good). Housing starts are down vs. January but about even with February of last year (mixed). New home sales reached a record low (bad). Existing home sales are up (good). Home inventory is lower than last year (good). Housing affordability has improved (good). Mortgage applications are down (bad). Mortgage interest rates are still near historic lows (good). Real estate mutual fund returns are strong (good).

Although there are more positive than negative signs, it is hard to predict where the market will go from here because 1) we don’t know what impact the expiration of the home buyer tax credit will have; 2) even though mortgage rates are still very low, credit is still hard to get; 3) it doesn’t matter how low rates are, people who are unemployed can’t get a mortgage; 4) there is still that shadow inventory of looming foreclosures that will keep prices down and stifle new home construction.

How Does the North Shore Compare?
Real estate is local, so the big question is whether the North Shore mirrors the U.S. on key indicators.

Pending Home Sales: While the national pending sales number was 17% better than last year,  North Shore pending sales were 69% higher than last year.

Home Sales: Home sales on the North Shore for the 1st quarter of 2010 were up 56% over 1st quarter of 2009.

Home Inventory: The inventory of homes for sale on the North Shore is down 9% vs. last year.

Prices: Average home prices on the North Shore are down 7% vs. last year. Not good for sellers, but may be enabling some people to move to the North Shore who were priced out of the market before.

Absorption rate: This is the measure of how many weeks it will take to sell the existing inventory at the current rate of sale. 26 weeks is considered neutral. Anything higher is a buyer’s market. The North Shore’s absorption rate was 70 weeks in March. High, but down 39% vs. March of last year.

Supply/demand ratio: This is the number of active listings there are on the market for every one that sells. At the ideal number of 6,  homes are being sold for exactly the right price. The North Shore number is 16, which is high but improved over last year when the number was 26.

The conclusion: the North Shore is not out of the woods yet, for the same reason the U.S. is not, but all of the numbers are more positive than they were a year ago, and better than the national averages. Stay tuned as we monitor changes in interest rates, unemployment and foreclosures and their impact on the housing market recovery.

Tags: North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends

Glencoe Real Estate Trends – March

The Glencoe market seems to be stabilizing. Although the numbers are nowhere near where they were at the market’s peak, they have definitely improved versus this time last year. Buyer activity is up as consumers seek to take advantage of low interest rates as well as the soon-to-expire tax credit.

Glencoe Home Sales

March home sales (including single family houses, condos and townhomes) were up 40% vs. March of last year (caution: low base size) and up 17% over last month.

Glencoe Home Prices

The price declines we have been experiencing since early 2008 appear to have leveled off, which is certainly good news. Both the median and the average prices were up in March versus last month and last year. The median sales price was $1,175,000, up 19% vs. last year and up a whopping 95% over last month. The average sales price was $1,162,929, up 31% vs. last year and up 99% vs. last month. Before you get excited and conclude that the market is back and prices are returning to peak levels, keep in mind that this big increase in average and median price was driven by the fact that in March there were 5 houses sold over $1,000,000 and one under, while in February there were 5 houses sold below $1,000,000 and only one above $1,000,000.

Inventory and Months Supply

In March there were 120 homes for sale in Glencoe, up slightly from last month (typical seasonality) and down 18% from March 2009. More importantly, the months supply of homes (the number of months it would take to sell all of the homes at the current rate of sale) is 17 months. This is higher than what we consider a balanced market (6-7 months), but a lot better than March 2009 when there was a 29 month supply of homes on the market.

Market Time

Days on market (DOM) is the average number of days a property is on the market before it sells. This number continues to rise, although the rate of increase has slowed, fortunately. The DOM for March was 185 days, up 64% from last month but only up 3% from last year.

Tags: Glencoe, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends

Wilmette Real Estate Trends – March

Hallelujah! Things are looking up for the Wilmette real estate market and the news is positive across all the key measures.

Wilmette Home Sales

Sales of Wilmette’s single family homes (including houses, condos and town homes) were up significantly in March, both vs. February (+65%) and vs. March of last year (+87%). Okay, so last March the market was dead. But still, this is very positive news. Most of the action continues to be below $900,000, but we are seeing more sales in higher price points. 31% of the sales were above $900,000 this year vs. 20% last year.

Wilmette Home Prices

Here’s something we haven’t seen in a while. Median and average home prices in Wilmette were UP, both vs. last month and last year. The median sales price in March was $655,000, up almost 30% from $505,000 in March 2009 and up 7.4% vs. February. The average sales price in March was $869,313, up 31% over March 2009 and up 36% from February.

Inventory and Months Supply

The inventory of Wilmette homes for sale as of March was 275, up 7.8% from February, consistent with market seasonality.  However, it’s down 9.5% vs. last March. More indicative of the market’s improving health is the decline of the months supply of homes on the market. As of March the months supply was 9.8 months, meaning that, at the current rate of sale, it would take 9.8 months for all of the houses listed to sell. Although 9.8 months is still considered a buyer’s market, this is a significant improvement over March of last year when the months supply was twice as high, at 20 months.

Market Time

Although market time of 114 days increased 39% from February, it decreased 30.5% from 165 days in March 2009. The fact that homes are selling faster is consistent with the increase we’re seeing in unit sales and the decrease in months supply of homes on the market.

If you have any questions about this data, or would like more details about the Wilmette market, please email me or give me a call at 847-687-5957.

Tags: North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends, Wilmette neighborhoods

North Shore Market Update: 1st Quarter 2010

The North Shore housing market looks a whole lot better in 2010 than it did at this time last year. Driven by low interest rates, the home buyer tax credit, plentiful supply of homes to choose from and attractive prices, buyers have returned to the market. Prices are still soft but the rate of decline has slowed.

Housing sales on Chicago’s North Shore increased 56% in the first quarter of 2010 vs. the same period last year. All towns had healthy increases except for Northfield which had one less sale this year than last. The big winner in percentage terms was Kenilworth, which had nine sales this year vs. one last year.

Average prices for sold properties on the North Shore was down 7%. Lake Forest showed the biggest drop (-30%), followed by Winnetka (-21%). Highland Park had only a 1% decrease in average price, while Evanston and Wilmette actually showed increases. Kenilworth’s large increase in average price was driven by the fact that the only sale in 2009 was for an unusually low-priced property for this village.

Days on market for properties sold was down 8% for the North Shore, but the numbers varied widely across individual towns. The largest decreases in market time were in Wilmette (-70%) and Lake Forest (-58%). The largest increases were in Kenilworth (+48%) and Northfield (+38%).

North Shore Market Update – 1st Qtr. 2010 vs. Year Ago*

*Single family detached homes. Source: MRED – Deemed reliable but not guaranteed

Tags: North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends

Confused By What You Read About the Housing Market?

It’s hard to know what to make of recent headlines about the housing market. Some days it seems like things are improving. Other days it’s all doom and gloom again. Here are some of the headlines about real estate I’ve read in the last few weeks:

“Housing Market Activity Picks Up”

“2010 Housing Market Off to a Chilly Start”

“Illinois Real Estate Sales Up 35% in 4th Quarter”

“New Wave of Foreclosures Threaten Market”

“Warren Buffett Sees Housing Market Bouncing Back by 2011″

“Chicago Local Housing Report Reveals Market Slow-Down”

“Negative Reports on Housing Continue”

I try to read everything I can about the real estate market and consider myself pretty well-informed on market developments. But even I find myself scratching my head sometimes. I guess I’m not the only one who wonders what to do with the mixed messages we are getting from the media. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, attempted to make some sense out of it all in his podcast on Thursday.

Here’s a summary of his comments on the state of the economy:

The U.S. economy grew 5.9% in 4th quarter 2009 and is projected to grow 3% during 2010.
But this growth was not accompanied by any new job creation, and unemployment remained near 10% in February.

The housing market recovery is still in a delicate state. Sales activity is up and the downward trend in prices appears to have stabilized. However, foreclosures remain high and government policies (e.g., HAMP) to stave off an acceleration of foreclosure activity have been ineffective, so foreclosures will remain high in the near future.

New home sales are down, because builders are just not building. The credit conditions for builders to get loans are very tight. Plus, builders cannot compete with the prices of all the distressed properties that are on the market.

Existing homes sales are doing better due to the tax credit, though sales dipped in January because of the severe weather in many parts of the country. Sales activity is expected to pick up in coming weeks as the April 30 tax credit deadline nears.

In the near term, the sustainability of the housing market recovery is going to depend on two things: consistent job creation and what happens with foreclosures in the coming months. And it’s anybody’s guess how that will play out because we’ve never been in exactly this situation before.

The general consensus among economists is that the housing market will move sideways in 2010 and then begin to grow again at a moderate and sustainable pace beginning in 2011.

Tags: North Shore real estate market predictions, North Shore real estate trends