North Shore Views

Lake Forest Real Estate Trends

Lake Forest has had some of the most extreme changes over the past couple of years. Home sales (single family houses, condos and townhomes) have improved dramatically but have been accompanied by large decreases in average pricing. In fact, average prices for December of 2009 were about 50% of prices during the market’s peak, back in late 2007.

Lake Forest Home Sales

December sales showed a 29% jump from November and 100% from December of last year. Total year sales of 187 are 4.5% ahead of 2008. Consistent with other markets, Lake Forest had a weak 1st quarter after which sales rebounded and have held relatively steady since May.

Home Prices

The average sales price was $857,166 in December down 6% vs. November and down 27% vs. December 2008. Pricing in Lake Forest has been consistently trending downward from its high of $1,800,000 in late 2007. While other markets appear to be stabilizing, it’s not clear that Lake Forest prices have hit bottom yet.

Inventory and Months Supply

The total inventory of homes for sale as of December was 347, down 11% from November and down 8% from December of last year. This is the lowest level of inventory in Lake Forest since March 2007. Months supply, a measure of how long it would take to sell all of the inventory at the current rate of sale, was 15.8 months in December, its lowest since August 2007. Lower inventory and months supply should ultimately help bolster prices.

Market Time

The average days on market, which shows how many days a home is on the market before it sells, was 113 days as of December, down 3% vs. November and down 29% vs. December 2008. The combination of low prices and reduced supply is causing buyers to get off the fence and buy.

Read my 2010 outlook for North Shore real estate here.

Tags: Lake Forest, North Shore Chicago home sales trends, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends

Evanston Real Estate Trends

Housing market trends for Evanston (including single family houses, condos and townhomes) mirror those of the rest of the North Shore. The good news: sales are up and inventories are down. The bad news: prices are down vs. last year and time on market is up.

Evanston Home Sales

December sales were up 28% vs. 2008. Total 2009 sales of 682 are down 10% vs. 2008.  However, the lower annual numbers are driven by a very weak market in the first half of 2009. Sales for the 2nd half of the year were up 12% vs. the second half of 2008.

Home Prices

December’s average price of $374,393 was 13% below December 2008 but 18% above the previous month, suggesting the downward slide of prices that began in early 2008 may be stabilizing.

Inventory and Months Supply

The total inventory of homes for sale was 646 in December, down 7% from November and down 9% vs. December 2008. This is the lowest level of inventory in over two years, good news for sellers, since pricing and time on market are ultimately driven by supply and demand. Months supply is 14 months, which means it would take 14 months to sell all the homes on the market at the current rate of sale.  This is 30% lower than December 2008 and moving in the right direction.

Market Time

The average days on market, which shows how many days the average home is on the market before it sells, was 92 days. This is 13% lower than November but 6% higher than last December.

Tags: Evanston, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends

Highland Park Real Estate Trends

Highland Park real estate trends are looking more positive recently but not as positive as the trends for Glencoe, its neighbor to the south. Sales were up, but not as much as in Glencoe and prices were down.  Months supply of inventory has decreased since the beginning of the year, but remains higher than Glencoe’s months supply.

Highland Park Home Sales

December home sales (single-family houses, condos and townhomes) were up 19% over November and also up 19% vs. December 2008. However, total 2009 sales of 242 are 18% behind 2008 sales of 294. Although trends have been positive since May, the market in Highland Park was dead through April, which depressed total year numbers. Sales in the second half of 2009 were comparable to the same period last year.

Home Prices

The downward trend in prices that began early in 2008 appear to have slowed. The average selling price in December was $623,634, down 0.5% vs. last year but up 71% vs. November. One month’s increase does not a trend make, so we shouldn’t draw any conclusions from one big jump.

Housing Inventory and Months Supply

Inventory of homes for sale has been trending down since June and was 12% lower than November.  However, inventories continued to be higher than for December 2008. Currently there is 16.3 months supply, meaning that it would take over 16 months to sell all the houses on the market at the current rate of sale. This is 6 months more than Glencoe.

Market Time

Market time, the number of days a property is on the market before it sells, has been increasing since the middle of 2008.  But in December market time was down, vs. November and vs. December of 2008, suggesting that sellers are getting more realistic about pricing and buyers are responding.

Tags: Highland Park, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends

Glencoe Real Estate Trends

Glencoe’s data is fairly consistent with the other North Shore communities. Sales are up and so is market time. The good news is that prices appear to be stabilizing and inventory is shrinking, meaning that the worst is probably over and the recovery is taking hold. The wild card is the tax credit and what will happen once it expires. Stay tuned.

Glencoe Home Sales
December sales of Glencoe homes (including single family houses, townhomes and condos) rose 37% from November and 37% from year ago. Sales had been rising through the second half of 2009, but dropped off in November in anticipation of the expiration of the new home buyer tax credit. Once that was reinstated (and expanded), sales picked up again in December.

Housing Prices
Glencoe prices, which had been trending downward since early 2008, appear to be stabilizing. December’s average sales price was $1,337,882, up 78% over November and up 15% vs. December 2008.

Inventory and Months Supply
Inventory has been consistently declining since May, with December inventory of 108 homes down 3% vs. November and down 12% vs. December 2008. Months supply, which is a measure of how long it would take to sell all the inventory at the current rate of sale, was 9.8 months. This is a decrease over November’s months supply of 13.8 months.  The improving trend since May 2009 is good news for sellers, since prices and market time are affected by the supply of homes on the market.

Time on Market
Market time, which has been on an upward trend since the beginning of 2008, continues to climb. December market time for houses sold was 162 days, up 7% from November and up 34% vs. December 2008.

Tags: Glencoe, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends

Winnetka Real Estate Trends

Here’s the data for Winnetka home sales through December 2009. It’s a mixed bag but generally heading in the right direction: sales are up and inventory is down, both good things for sellers. Prices are lower than 2008 but the downward trend we’ve seen over the last couple of years appears to be stabilizing.

Winnetka Home Sales
A total of 19 homes (single family houses, townhouses and condos) sold in December 2009, up 111% over December 2008 and 137% over the prior month. Total 2009 sales of 157 was comparable to 2008 sales of 158. Sales, which had been improving since mid-summer had slowed in November with the anticipated expiration of the new home buyer tax credit. Once that was renewed and expanded, sales picked up again in December.

Prices
The average sales price in December was $1,247,233, down 33% vs. December 2008 but up 23% from last month’s average price of $1,010,438. Although average and median prices bounce around from month to month, the rolling 3 month average indicates that the downward trend in prices has stabilized.

Inventory and Months Supply
Inventory of properties for sale in December was 178, down 13% from December 2008 and down 13% vs. November 2009. Months supply of inventory was 9.4 months. This means that it would take 9.4 months to sell all the houses on the market at the current rate of sale. This is the lowest level since April 2007, which is good news for sellers. Months supply had reached a high of 86 months in April 2009, which was the absolute low point for real estate sales in Winnetka.

Market Time
Days on market for December was 91, down 43% vs. December of last year. What this says is that sellers are now pricing their homes more realistically and buyers are getting off the fence and buying.

Related Posts

• What’s Ahead for North Shore Real Estate

Tags: North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends, Winnetka

North Shore Home Sales – 2009 Summary

Here’s the data for North Shore single family home sales for total year 2009 vs. 2008. The year-end snapshot doesn’t tell the whole story, though, since the market was pretty dead in the first half of 2009 and only started picking up in the second half of the year. So, the trend in units sold is actually much more positive than the total year number indicates. Unfortunately, the improved sales trend has also been accompanied by lower prices and longer market time.

North Shore Detached Homes Sold 2009 vs.. 2008:

	2009	2008	% Chg
Units sold	2642	2523	+5%
Avg. List Price	$756,918	$879,722	-14%
Avg. Sold Price	$627,741	$774,503	-19%
% List Price Rec’d	83%	88%	-6%
Avg. Mkt Time Closed	202 days	178 days	+13%

Source: MRED- Deemed reliable but not guaranteed

Tags: North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends

What's Ahead for North Shore Real Estate?

Predicting the future is popular at this time of year and, when it comes to real estate, there is no shortage of opinions about what’s ahead for 2010. Some economists, like Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors, are fairly optimistic about the housing market’s prospects. Others, like Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com, are downright pessimistic. Since real estate is my livelihood, I would like to believe Lawrence Yun, but unfortunately his track record hasn’t been all that great, so his predictions need to be taken with a grain of salt (or two).

Having read the economists’ and other experts’ reports and scrutinized the local market data, I’ve come to my own conclusions about how the North Shore will or won’t reflect what’s going on nationally:

1. On a national level, sales will continue the positive momentum begun in mid 2009, at least through May, as buyers take advantage of the tax credits, low interest rates and attractive prices. This will hold true for the North Shore of Chicago too, but much of the activity in our area will be at the lower end of the market (<$800,000). And once the tax credit expires this summer, the market will probably stall again,  at least temporarily.

2. Based on recent trends, I think that prices will decline another 2-3% over the next three to six months, before stabilizing. So, if potential sellers are waiting to see if prices will rebound before listing their homes, they are in for a long wait. It will take at least five years (and probably more) before we see prices anywhere near 2006 levels.

3. The Fed will do its darnedest keep interest rates low for as long as it can to avoid sabotaging the recovery;  but we should expect rates to rise somewhat, probably to around 6%, later in 2010.

4. Foreclosures have not been as big a problem on the North Shore as elsewhere, but we are not out of the woods yet. We will likely see an increase in short sales and foreclosures as adjustable rate mortgages reset and those who took bigger risks when the market was good find themselves unable to refinance now. Unemployment in the neighborhood of 10% will continue to plague us at least through mid-year, putting a further drag on the housing recovery.

5. New construction of spec homes will be at a virtual standstill until existing inventory works its way through the system. Builders just can’t compete with the discounted prices of distressed properties and will be unwilling to build without a buyer lined up in advance.

6. The shift away from McMansions towards smaller, more efficient and greener homes will accelerate, driven by first time buyers and downsizing empty nesters.

I certainly hope that my predictions turn out to have been too pessimistic. That is,  except the one about the McMansions. I, for one, would be happy never to see another McMansion built again.

Tags: Home prices North Shore, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate market predictions, North Shore real estate trends

North Shore Market Update – December 2009

In December 2009 sales of single family homes on the North Shore were up 32% vs. December 2008, while average prices were down 8%. Market time increased 21% to 200 days for sold properties.

Average prices declined in all towns except Glenview and Glencoe. Winnetka and Northfield had the largest price declines AND the largest increase in units sold, so price does seem to be the biggest driver in the market today.

Wilmette was the only town were there were fewer units sold in 2009 than 2008.

December 2009 vs. Year Ago*

	Units Sold	Avg. Price	Market Time
Town	% Change	% Chg	% Chg
Evanston	6%	-24%	20%
Wilmette	-22%	-14%	28%
Glenview	25%	16%	19%
Northfield	200%	-73%	159%
Winnetka	138%	-39%	-1%
Glencoe	38%	15%	69%
Highland Park	22%	-4%	-18%
Lake Forest	67%	-1%	25%
North Shore	32%	-8%	21%

* Single family homes (Source: MRED – Deemed reliable but not guaranteed)

Tags: Evanston, Glencoe, Glenview, Highland Park, Kenilworth, Lake Forest, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends, Northfield, Wilmette, Winnetka

Wilmette Housing Trends 2007-2009

For all the data wonks in Wilmette, here are three years of housing data for our town as a whole and for some of the individual neighborhoods. The source is MRED, which is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Also, note that the data for the specific neighborhoods may not reflect all activity…unless the neighborhood was called out in the MLS listing, the transaction would only show up in the total Wilmette numbers.

Wilmette

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold) 000’s	Avg. Sales Price 000’s	Sold /List Price	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	316	$1,023.1	$970.8	95%	132
2008	244	$984.7	$912.4	93%	150
2009	214	$834.1	$770.4	92%	168

McKenzie

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List Price	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	5	$1,189.8	$1,155.0	97%	74
2008	2	$709.4	$677.5	96%	65
2009	2	$680.0	$687.5	101%	11

Kenilworth Gardens

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List Price	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	15	$1,005.8	$982.3	98%	38
2008	10	1,044.1	982.9	94%	119
2009	17	835.2	778.2	93%	140

Indian Hill Estates

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List Price	Days on Market  (Sold)
2007	10	$1,385.4	$1,287.9	93%	125
2008	1	1,225.0	1,130.0	92%	158
2009	8	1,261.0	1,132.8	90%	338

The CAGE

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	4	$1,126.0	$1,075.8	96%	48
2008	5	1,301.0	1,225.8	94%	168
2009	9	1,109.5	1,019.2	92%	90

East Wilmette

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	15	$1,165.7	$1,100.6	94%	102
2008	8	2,062.4	1,932.4	94%	124
2009	6	1,237.3	1,149.4	93%	83

Tags: North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, Wilmette, Wilmette neighborhoods

North Shore Housing Inventory Snapshot – December 1, 2009

Here’s a snapshot of what’s on the market right now, including list prices and time on market. Not surprisingly, there seems to be a direct correlation between price level and time on market, with Winnetka, Kenilworth and Lake Forest being the priciest markets and also the ones where market time is longest, at well over 300 days.

Town	# Units for Sale*	Median List Price	Average List Price	Average D.O.M.
Evanston	225	$514,000	$695,154	240
Wilmette	155	$710,000	$887,632	280
Glenview	380	$664,950	$792,208	263
Northfield	64	$732,000	$885,750	314
Kenilworth	43	$1,899,000	$2,183,942	336
Winnetka	176	$1,499,000	$1,970,967	339
Glencoe	98	$1,099,450	$1,813,779	259
Highland Park	345	$679,000	$1,027,431	287
Lake Forest	316	$1,250,000	$1,911,778	320
North Shore	1802	$799,000	$1,236,879	288

* Detached single family houses (Source: MRED)

Tags: Glencoe, Glenview, Kenilworth, Lake Forest, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, Northfield, Real estate, Wilmette, Winnetka