North Shore Views

Archive for the 'Real estate' Category

What's Ahead for North Shore Real Estate?

Predicting the future is popular at this time of year and, when it comes to real estate, there is no shortage of opinions about what’s ahead for 2010. Some economists, like Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors, are fairly optimistic about the housing market’s prospects. Others, like Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com, are downright pessimistic. Since real estate is my livelihood, I would like to believe Lawrence Yun, but unfortunately his track record hasn’t been all that great, so his predictions need to be taken with a grain of salt (or two).

Having read the economists’ and other experts’ reports and scrutinized the local market data, I’ve come to my own conclusions about how the North Shore will or won’t reflect what’s going on nationally:

1. On a national level, sales will continue the positive momentum begun in mid 2009, at least through May, as buyers take advantage of the tax credits, low interest rates and attractive prices. This will hold true for the North Shore of Chicago too, but much of the activity in our area will be at the lower end of the market (<$800,000). And once the tax credit expires this summer, the market will probably stall again,  at least temporarily.

2. Based on recent trends, I think that prices will decline another 2-3% over the next three to six months, before stabilizing. So, if potential sellers are waiting to see if prices will rebound before listing their homes, they are in for a long wait. It will take at least five years (and probably more) before we see prices anywhere near 2006 levels.

3. The Fed will do its darnedest keep interest rates low for as long as it can to avoid sabotaging the recovery;  but we should expect rates to rise somewhat, probably to around 6%, later in 2010.

4. Foreclosures have not been as big a problem on the North Shore as elsewhere, but we are not out of the woods yet. We will likely see an increase in short sales and foreclosures as adjustable rate mortgages reset and those who took bigger risks when the market was good find themselves unable to refinance now. Unemployment in the neighborhood of 10% will continue to plague us at least through mid-year, putting a further drag on the housing recovery.

5. New construction of spec homes will be at a virtual standstill until existing inventory works its way through the system. Builders just can’t compete with the discounted prices of distressed properties and will be unwilling to build without a buyer lined up in advance.

6. The shift away from McMansions towards smaller, more efficient and greener homes will accelerate, driven by first time buyers and downsizing empty nesters.

I certainly hope that my predictions turn out to have been too pessimistic. That is,  except the one about the McMansions. I, for one, would be happy never to see another McMansion built again.

Tags: Home prices North Shore, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate market predictions, North Shore real estate trends

Why You Shouldn't Wait 'til Spring to List Your Home

Typically the real estate market is pretty dead between Thanksgiving and February, so people planning to sell in the new year usually wait until after Super Bowl Sunday to put their houses on the market. But this year will likely be different. Here’s why you should get your property listed as early as you can:

1. The extension of the first time buyer tax credit and the expansion of the tax credit to existing homeowners until April 30 means that there will be a continued influx of buyers into the market during the first quarter of 2010. Buyers who want to take advantage of the tax credit will begin looking for a new home earlier, to make sure they can find a home, arrange financing and close before the June 30 deadline. Here’s a good chart outlining the rules of the tax credit.
2. Interest rates are at or near 40 year lows right now, further stimulating buyer demand. But these rates are not likely to hold for long. While there probably won’t be a big increase in rates this year, they will start to   drift upward somewhat in the next 3-6 months.
3. Because many people will follow traditional wisdom and wait to list until later in the spring, you will have less competition if you can get a jump on them. People who are willing to brave single digit temps to look at houses are SERIOUS buyers.

If you’re thinking and hoping that prices might improve  if you wait a little longer, forget it. There’s a good chance that prices still have a little bit farther to fall before stabilizing.  And, even if prices are at or near the bottom, it is unlikely that we will see any upward movement in prices until later in the year. Real estate prices don’t tend to rebound in a “V” shape but rather in a  “U” shape with a wide trough before slowly starting to climb again.

Tags: home buyer tax credit, home selling tips, when to list your home for sale

North Shore Market Update – December 2009

In December 2009 sales of single family homes on the North Shore were up 32% vs. December 2008, while average prices were down 8%. Market time increased 21% to 200 days for sold properties.

Average prices declined in all towns except Glenview and Glencoe. Winnetka and Northfield had the largest price declines AND the largest increase in units sold, so price does seem to be the biggest driver in the market today.

Wilmette was the only town were there were fewer units sold in 2009 than 2008.

December 2009 vs. Year Ago*

	Units Sold	Avg. Price	Market Time
Town	% Change	% Chg	% Chg
Evanston	6%	-24%	20%
Wilmette	-22%	-14%	28%
Glenview	25%	16%	19%
Northfield	200%	-73%	159%
Winnetka	138%	-39%	-1%
Glencoe	38%	15%	69%
Highland Park	22%	-4%	-18%
Lake Forest	67%	-1%	25%
North Shore	32%	-8%	21%

* Single family homes (Source: MRED – Deemed reliable but not guaranteed)

Tags: Evanston, Glencoe, Glenview, Highland Park, Kenilworth, Lake Forest, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends, Northfield, Wilmette, Winnetka

Wilmette Housing Trends 2007-2009

For all the data wonks in Wilmette, here are three years of housing data for our town as a whole and for some of the individual neighborhoods. The source is MRED, which is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Also, note that the data for the specific neighborhoods may not reflect all activity…unless the neighborhood was called out in the MLS listing, the transaction would only show up in the total Wilmette numbers.

Wilmette

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold) 000’s	Avg. Sales Price 000’s	Sold /List Price	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	316	$1,023.1	$970.8	95%	132
2008	244	$984.7	$912.4	93%	150
2009	214	$834.1	$770.4	92%	168

McKenzie

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List Price	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	5	$1,189.8	$1,155.0	97%	74
2008	2	$709.4	$677.5	96%	65
2009	2	$680.0	$687.5	101%	11

Kenilworth Gardens

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List Price	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	15	$1,005.8	$982.3	98%	38
2008	10	1,044.1	982.9	94%	119
2009	17	835.2	778.2	93%	140

Indian Hill Estates

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List Price	Days on Market  (Sold)
2007	10	$1,385.4	$1,287.9	93%	125
2008	1	1,225.0	1,130.0	92%	158
2009	8	1,261.0	1,132.8	90%	338

The CAGE

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	4	$1,126.0	$1,075.8	96%	48
2008	5	1,301.0	1,225.8	94%	168
2009	9	1,109.5	1,019.2	92%	90

East Wilmette

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	15	$1,165.7	$1,100.6	94%	102
2008	8	2,062.4	1,932.4	94%	124
2009	6	1,237.3	1,149.4	93%	83

Tags: North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, Wilmette, Wilmette neighborhoods

Wilmette’s Neighborhoods: Indian Hill Estates

Not to be confused with the Winnetka country club community of Indian Hills, Indian Hill Estates is in Wilmette. Developed from subdivided farmland in the 50’s and 60’s and laid out by architect Philip Mayer, this neighborhood looks more like a typical suburban subdivision than most of the other Wilmette neighborhoods. It has winding roads, cul de sacs, big lots and stone gates at the entrances to the subdivision.

Indian Hill Estates covers a 170 acre area north of Lake Street, west of Hunter Road, east of Hibbard Road and south of Illinois Road and Thornwood Avenue. Lots are often irregularly shaped and range in size from 8,000 to 30,000 sq. ft. Houses are typically larger than those in neighboring Kenilworth Gardens, with 4 to 6 bedrooms, 3 to 5 baths and price tags to match. Housing styles include Tudors, colonials, French country, Arts and Crafts and a few ranches sprinkled here and there. During the recent housing boom many of the smaller homes were torn down and replaced by new construction.

Homes in the area are served by Harper Elementary School (K-4) at 1101 Dartmouth Street.

Housing prices in Indian Hill Estates range from $800,000 to $2,000,000 (a few even higher).

At this writing there are seven homes for sale in Indian Hill Estates. Here is a sampling. If you would like more info on homes currently for sale in Indian Hill Estates, go here. And if there is a home you’d like to tour, just call me at 847-687-5957. I’d be happy to show you.

Tags: Indian Hill Estates, Wilmette IL, Wilmette neighborhoods

How Move-Up Buyers Can Profit from a Down Market

I have some clients who want to buy a new home in the worst way. They see some great buys on the market, houses that have  the features they really want. And their earnings enable them to qualify for a bigger mortgage. But, after looking and dreaming, reality sets in, because they are saddled with their existing home, which they would need to sell before they can buy.  And they realize that they can’t sell their current home without taking a hit.  Like many other people who bought when the market was up, they have a house that’s worth less today than it was three years ago and the thought of selling it for less than they paid makes them cringe.

When I tell them that if they really do want to move, they can actually come out ahead, they look at me like I have three heads. But I’m serious. Because, while their house has decreased in value, so have the other houses, and if they are moving up, they can save more than they lose.

Let’s take their house as an example. Today, based on comps, I would list their house somewhere right around $700,000, which is about 21% less than it was worth back in 2006 ($885,000). One of the houses they are interested in buying is listed at $1,200,000, which is also 21% less than it was worth in 2006 ($1,519,000). Now, let’s say they sell their house for $630,000 or about 90% of the list price of $700,000. And let’s say they can negotiate a deal for $1,080,000 for their dream house, also 90% of asking.

They’ve “lost” $256,000 on the sale of their current house (vs. the market high in 2006), but they’ve “saved” $439,000 on the new house vs. its high price in 2006, a net gain of $183,000.

When you do the math, you see that the current market conditions CAN work in your favor in some situations. Not only can my clients afford a house that they could not have afforded at the 2006 prices, but interest rates are near historic lows, making this a great time to buy. Of course I would NOT advise them to run right out and put an offer on their dream house UNTIL they have sold their current home. If they are serious about moving, they should price their house to sell and then, once they have a contract, negotiate hard for their dream house. Once they have sold they will be in the driver’s seat and have the leverage to negotiate a very attractive deal for themselves on the buy side.

Tags: home buying tips, move-up buyer strategies

5 Reasons to Keep Your Home Listed During the Holidays

You’re busy, you’re stressed, you’re way behind on your holiday shopping. Keeping the house neat 24/7  is taking its toll. The last thing you want to be bothered with is keeping the house show-ready for potential buyers when you’re trying to cook, clean,  decorate, entertain, shop and wrap for the holidays.

“Can’t we just take a break for a couple of weeks?” clients always ask me. “Surely no one is actually looking at real estate in December. Do I really need to keep my home on the market over the holidays?”

The answer I always give is: “How badly do you want to sell?” Because here’s the thing. It’s true there are fewer buyers at this time of year. No one in their right mind wants to look for real estate during the holidays. Unless, that is, they HAVE to buy, and buy SOON. So that brings me to reason #1 for keeping your house on the market:

1. If people are looking at real estate in December, they are SERIOUS  buyers and not the lookie-loos who have been traipsing through your house for the last few months. If you can gut it out for the next few weeks you might actually get an offer when you least expect it. Wouldn’t that be a nice Christmas present?
2. The corollary to reason #1 is that many sellers do go ahead and take their homes off the market over the holidays, which means there is less inventory on the market. Which means you have less competition for those few SERIOUS BUYERS.
3. Although it’s stressful for you to keep the house tidy with so much else going on, the fact is that your house will probably show better now, with holiday decorations up, than it will during the bleak months of January, February and March. Plus, all the warmth and cheer evoked by (appropriate) holiday decorating can strike an emotional chord with your buyer, subliminally conveying the wonderful lifestyle they will enjoy in this home. Just make sure you decorate the right way to evoke those positive emotions.
4. Think about this: if you are able to sell your home now and plan to buy another, you’ll be able to take your pick of the vast inventory of homes that will hit the MLS in the spring. In all likelihood, interest rates will still be low early in the year so you’ll win on the financing end too.
5. If the first four reasons didn’t convince you, just remember:  It won’t sell if it’s not on.

Tags: home selling tips, Real estate, selling my home over the holidays

Wilmette's Neighborhoods: Kenilworth Gardens

This is the first in a series of posts about the individual neighborhoods on the North Shore. As they say, real estate is local, and each neighborhood has its own characteristics and quirks. So, when we look for the ideal place to live, we need to drill down beyond ” the North Shore”  or even the particular town. As your search gets more serious, you have to go to the neighborhood level.  Since I live in Kenilworth Gardens, it seemed like the obvious place to start my neighborhood series.

If you’re not from around here, the first thing you need to know is that Kenilworth Gardens is NOT in Kenilworth. It is in Wilmette, but it is right across Ridge Rd. from Kenilworth. No doubt the developers of this neighborhood of starter homes sought to give it some cache by naming it after its grander neighbor to the east.

Kenilworth Gardens was developed during the 50’s and 60’s from land that once was part of Gross Point Village.  The neighborhood is bounded by Ridge Rd. on the east, Iroquios Rd. to the south, and Indian Hill (Winnetka) to the north. The western edge is harder to pinpoint. Some say it is Hunter Rd., but most of the residents would say it stretches a little further west, as far as Harper School.

The lot size in this area is typically 50′ by 122-132′ (the lots on Chestnut Ave. are deeper than those on other streets). Most of the houses were originally built with 3 bedrooms, one and a half baths, and a one car garage, but many have been added onto over the years and now have 4 bedrooms and two and a half baths plus a family room. There are various styles but most of the homes are either colonials or Tudors. Currently, prices range from $650,000 to $1,400,000. It’s a popular neighborhood for young families moving up from the city or relocating from out of town. It has a friendly vibe and block parties are frequent during the summer. It’s the go-to neighborhood for Halloween trick or treating.

The neighborhood is served by Harper Elementary School (K-4), which is walkable from anywhere in the

neighborhood. Thornwood Park, which is catty-corner to the school, has tennis courts, a play lot and a ball field, where the Wilmette baseball teams play all spring and summer. In the summer there is an annual Thornwood Park concert, where 3-4 bands comprised of local dads play to an enthusiastic crowd of neighbors and friends.

During better markets, the houses in Kenilworth Gardens sell very quickly, but at this writing there are a 12 to choose from. You can see a sampling below. If you’d like to know more about this neighborhood or any of the homes for sale, just leave me a comment or give me a call at 847-687-5957. You can also email me. I’d be happy to help you.

Tags: Chicago North Shore, Kenilworth Gardens, Wilmette, Wilmette neighborhoods

North Shore Housing Inventory Snapshot – December 1, 2009

Here’s a snapshot of what’s on the market right now, including list prices and time on market. Not surprisingly, there seems to be a direct correlation between price level and time on market, with Winnetka, Kenilworth and Lake Forest being the priciest markets and also the ones where market time is longest, at well over 300 days.

Town	# Units for Sale*	Median List Price	Average List Price	Average D.O.M.
Evanston	225	$514,000	$695,154	240
Wilmette	155	$710,000	$887,632	280
Glenview	380	$664,950	$792,208	263
Northfield	64	$732,000	$885,750	314
Kenilworth	43	$1,899,000	$2,183,942	336
Winnetka	176	$1,499,000	$1,970,967	339
Glencoe	98	$1,099,450	$1,813,779	259
Highland Park	345	$679,000	$1,027,431	287
Lake Forest	316	$1,250,000	$1,911,778	320
North Shore	1802	$799,000	$1,236,879	288

* Detached single family houses (Source: MRED)

Tags: Glencoe, Glenview, Kenilworth, Lake Forest, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, Northfield, Real estate, Wilmette, Winnetka

North Shore Market Update for October-November 2009

The market continues to show signs of improvement, driven by the expansion of the tax credit, continued low interest rates and attractive prices. Sales of detached single family homes on the North Shore were up 34% in October-November over the same period last year, an even stronger performance than last month’s report. Another positive sign is that the number of active listings at the end of October decreased by 11% vs. the end of July, suggesting that we are starting to work through the high inventory of homes on the market. Prices, on the other hand, continue to be soft, down 14% on average vs. year

October-November 2009 vs. Year Ago*

Town	Units Sold % Change	Avg. Price % Change	Days on Mkt% Change
Evanston	+19%	-34%	+40%
Wilmette	+65%	-12%	+2%
Glenview	+36%	-16%	+12%
Northfield	+14%	+17%	+70%
Winnetka	=	+9%	-26%
Glencoe	+46%	+27%	+30%
Highland Park	+26%	-16%	-4%
Lake Forest	+72%	-47%	+76%
North Shore	+34%	-14%	+18%

* Detached single family homes (Source: MRED)

Although the numbers vary by town, there is a consistent trend, and that is that most of the buying activity is happening at the lower end of the price range. Lake Forest showed a dramatic 72% increase in sales, but it was not in the multi-million dollar homes people associate with Lake Forest. In fact almost 20% of the homes sold in Oct.-Nov of this year were in the $600,000-699,000 price range and 77% were below $1,000,000;  in 2008 only 55% of the homes sold in Lake Forest were below $1,000,000.

Glencoe also showed a healthy increase in units sold but  42% of homes sold under $600,000 in 2009 vs. 31% in 2008. The increase in average price for Glencoe this year was driven by one sale over $5,000,000.

Tags: Glencoe, Lake Forest, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends