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North Shore Market Update – April 2013

Wow! The North Shore housing market is on fire! Home sales increased a whopping 53% over last year, median prices were up 10% and market time was down 33%.

North Shore Market Update – April 2013 vs. Year Ago

All villages posted sales gains except for Kenilworth and Northfield, with the largest growth in Lake Forest (+133%) and Evanston (+119%).  Glencoe and Wilmette also strong gains.

All villages showed price appreciation except for Lake Forest, with Evanston’s median price up 38% from last April.

Market time for the North Shore has decreased to under four months (market time oin a normal market is six months). Glencoe, Wilmette and Evanston are the hottest markets, with homes staying on the market less than three months.

There’s no doubt about it – the recovery is in full swing, with all trends going in the right direction. If you are thinking of selling your home, now may be the right time. There are plenty of buyers out there and not enough homes on the market to satisfy the demand. If you tried unsuccessfully to sell in the last few years, you may want to try again. Your probability of success is much greater now.

Wondering what your house is worth in today’s market? Give us a call at 847-881-6657 and we’ll give you a market analysis.

Tags: Home prices, North Shore market data

Where Are Home Prices Headed in 2013 and Beyond?

After five long years of price declines, we are finally seeing some appreciation in housing prices. So, what can we expect in the coming few years and how quickly are we going to get back to the price levels we had in 2006?

There’s a nationwide panel of 118 economists, industry analysts and real estate experts who are surveyed about their price forecasts for the next five years. Their answers are then mashed together to give one “answer.” The idea is that some will be too bullish, some will be too bearish but the average of all their answers will more than likely be pretty close to the truth. At least that’s the theory.

So, what did our esteemed panel come up with?  They believe that prices will rise an average of 4.6% in 2013, 4.2% in 2014 and then it will balance out to around 3.7-3.8%, which is close to the annual price appreciation we saw pre-bubble. That results in a cumulative price appreciation of 22% by 2017.

If you’re not comfortable with the “mash up” answer of 118 economists, here’s what a handful of big kahunas in the industry are forecasting for prices. The  important takeaway is that every one of them has upgraded its projection for price appreciation vs. the previous forecast:

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Tags: Home prices, housing prices, market statistics, price expectations

Supply and Demand in the North Shore Housing Market

There’s nothing like a graph to paint a picture of what’s going on with housing market supply and demand on the North Shore.

This has to be one of the most confusing times to be a home seller or home buyer. Not that long ago (in the bad old days of the recession) it was most definitely a buyers market: lots of houses to choose from, affordable prices and historic low interest rates. Problem was, with so much economic unceratinty and a fear that prices would fall further, skittish buyers sat on the sidelines waiting for the “right” time to buy.

Then, all of a sudden (it seems) prices are rising again and the inventory of houses has dried up. With a recovering economy and continued low interest rates, buyers are ready to jump back into the market, creating a ton of pent-up demand. But sellers, still reeling from the loss of equity in their homes, are unwilling or unable to sell at such a loss. Having heard that prices are finally recovering, many are taking a wait and see attitude, hoping that we’ll get back to pre-bust price levels sometime soon.

The charts below show the relationship between supply and demand in each price range for Wilmette, Winnetka and Glencoe. Wilmette has the lowest inventory of any village on the North Shore. The blue bars show sales (demand) for the last six months and the red bars show how many houses are for sale (supply). Up to $800,000 the demand far exceeds the supply.  From $900,000 to $1,500,000 there less supply than demand, but not dramatically so. In Winnetka and Glencoe buyer activity is strong up to $1,500,000. At higher price points demand drops off considerably.

The upshot of this phenomenon is that buyers are finding themselves in bidding wars to get the house they want, and many are walking away empty-handed and frustrated. If you are a buyer in this situation, you need to work with your agent to develop a strategy to help you win the bidding war. Call us at 847-881-6657 to find out how we help our clients get the house they want.

Tomorrow, I’ll share information about short and long term price appreciation projections, so that homeowners can determine if, and when, it makes sense to sell.

We are North Shore real estate specialists and one of the top teams in the area. If you would like to schedule a buyer or seller consultation with the Come Home North Shore team, please contact us at 847-881-6657 or send us a note here

Related articles:

• Home buyers: Here’s Why You Can’t Find a House to Buy on the North Shore
• 7 Ways To Win a Bidding War on the North Shore

Tags: homes sales data, Housing inventory, supply and demand

North Shore Market Update – 1st Quarter 2013

Home sales on the North Shore were up 10% in the first quarter of 2013 vs.year ago. The villages with the biggest gains were Kenilworth (from a very small base), Highland Park (+39%) and Lake Forest (+33%). Not all markets were up, though. Evanston, Wilmette and Winnetka saw declines in the first quarter.  Evanston was down partly because of a very strong first quarter last year, where sales were up 83%. Wilmette’s decline was driven primarily by lack of inventory. With only 77 homes for sale, the village has the lowest inventory in years. In Winnetka the decline is mainly due to lack of inventory in the price points where there is the most buyer demand, which is between $800,000 to $1,400,000.

North Shore Market Update – 1st Quarter 2013 vs. Year Ago

Median prices were up 7% over first quarter of last year for the North Shore as a whole, but results were mixed across villages. Northfield, Lake Forest and Glenview showed healthy price increases, while Winnetka, Kenilworth and Glencoe saw declines. Winnetka’s decline was off a very strong 2012 where the median price was up 72% from the prior year. Kenilworth’s lower median price was driven by the fact that the majority of the sales in the quarter were in the less expensive part of the village west of Green Bay Rd.

Market time continued to decline to 5.1 months, which is less than the market time in a “normal” market. Some villages were well below that: Wilmette (2.4 months), and Northfield (3.5 months) and Evanston (4.1 months). Only Highland Park saw an upward trend in market time.

Want more data? You can go here to get more market statistics for the North Shore. If you are trying to figure out what your home is worth in today’s market, we can provide you with a competitive market analysis based on sales of similar homes to yours in your own community and neighbohood. Just give us a call at 847-881-6657.

Tags: home sales, median prices, North Shore real estate trends

North Shore Market Update – February 2013

North Shore home sales were up 18% in February over last year, which is not surprising given the recovering housing market. Interestingly, though, results varied significantly from village to village with some showing declines and others showing strong increases.  What seems to be happening is that the communities that rebounded early (Wilmette, Evanston, Glencoe) had their growth spurt last year and have plateaued, while areas where the recovery lagged behind, are now growing again Highland Park, Lake Forest and Glenview).

North Shore Market Update – February 2013 vs. Year Ago

A similar phenomenon is happening with prices. Prices overall have stabilized but the results are mixed when it comes to the individual towns. The communities that showed price appreciation last year (Evanston, Winnetka, Kenilworth) did not show appreciation this year (not yet, at least). Prices in Glencoe, Glenview, Northfield and Lake Forest, on the other hand, were slower to recover but have come back strongly at the beginning of this year.

Market time has declined to 5.1 months on the North Shore overall, which is below the 6 months you’d see in a “normal” market. This is driven by the relative lack of inventory available for sale. Wilmette’s inventory is so low right now, that the average market time is only 1.7 months.

A word of caution:  don’t read too much into one month of data, especially for a specific community, as these numbers do bounce around from month to month. Better to look at a longer term trend, which you can find under the Market Statistics tab. If you are trying to figure out what your home is worth in today’s market, we can provide you with a competitive market analysis based on sa;es of similar homes to yours in your own community and neighbohood. Just give us a call at 847-881-6657.

Tags: North Shore home prices, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends

Wilmette Home Sales by Elementary School – 2012

Once or twice a year I like to get really granular with the data and go to the neighborhood level to get a good picture of what’s going on in a given community. Wilmette is among the more diverse communitities when it comes to housing stock, with prices generally going up as you travel west to east. Despite the variety in housing stock, the good news is that all neighborhoods saw a dramatic increase in home sales in 2012 vs. the previous year. Avoca was up the most, with an increaae of 125%, followed by Central (+117%), Romona (+100%), Harper (+97%) and McKenzie (+70%).

Price improvement has lagged sales everywhere. Median prices were up slightly in all neighborhoods except Central, while average prices stayed mostly flat. Market time decreased in all neighborhoods except Romona, with the shortest average time on market in McKenzie.

Wilmette Sales by Elementary School – 2012

Source: MRED LLC – Data for single family homes. Deemed reliable but not guaranteed

Wondering what your neighbor’s house sold for? Just email us with the address of the property and we’d be happy to send you that information. Or call us at 847-881-6657. We’re always happy to answer your questions!

Tags: North Shore real estate trends, Wilmette neighborhoods

North Shore Real Estate Data – January 2013

For the first month of the year North Shore home sales decined 7% from January of 2012. After months of positive trends you may be worried that the housing market recovery has stalled. What’s really going on is that there are plenty of buyers out there looking for homes, but there just aren’t many good homes for them to buy and the few good houses that do come on the market are snapped up quickly, often in a bidding war. A case in point is Wilmette, where the average market time is an unheard of 1.8 months (market time in a normal market is six months). There are only 79 houses on the market in Wilmette, which is about half the number for sale this time last year. You can find out what’s driving the shortage of home for sale here.

North Shore Real Estate Update – January 2013

On a more positive note (for homeowners) the median sales price was up 4% from December and up 10% over January 2012. As supply and demand dynamics take hold, we should see prices continue to rise modestly in the coming months.

As for prices in individual towns, these tend to bounce around from month to month, and there are too few houses selling right now in each town to draw any conclusions about what’s going on. As we move into the spring market we will be able to get a better handle on market health.

Want more data? You can see statistics by individual town in Market Statistics.

Looking for real estate on the North Shore? Click here to see homes for sale on the North Shore.

Thinking of selling your home? Give us a call at 847-881-6657 to set up a marketing consultation with the Come Home North Shore Team. We’ll provide you with a comprehensive analysis of what your home is worth in today’s market, advise you on how to maximize its selling price and customize a marketing plan to maximize buyer exposure to your home.

Tags: North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends

How Does the North Shore Compare to National and Statewide Housing Trends?

After years of reporting doom and gloom about real estate, the national press has finally pronounced the housing market to be in the midst of a full-on recovery. Increased consumer confidence and  pent-up demand have driven home sales up with price appreciation following suit.

But most of what we read is about national averages, and since all real estate is local, the only relevant data for us as homeowners is the data for the market where we live and own real estate.

So here’s a table showing how the North Shore compared with the nation as a whole, the state of Illinois and the Chicago PMSA*. Home sales are up strongly across all areas, though the North Shore’s growth is somewhat more modest than that of the state or the Chicago PMSA. Where the North Shore really diverges from the broader market is in price appreciation. Whereas prices nationwide were up 6.3% in 2012, the North Shore’s prices were down 6%.

2012 Real Estate Trends Comparison

The cause of this disparity probably goes to the fact that the segments of the market which recovered first were at the low end of the price continuum. First-time buyers who are buying at the low end and are not saddled with a home to sell represented a larger portion of real estate transactions than in the past. The North Shore is generally not a first-time buyer market due to its higher home prices. The North Shore’s median sales price is $430,000, more than twice the national median price of $176,000. So, we should expect it to lag the rest of the state and the nation.

That said, prices do seem to have bottomed out on the North Shore and are starting to recover, and we are expecting healthy sales and modest price gains of around 3%  by the end of 2013.

*Chicago Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area

Tags: North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends

New Trier Real Estate Trends – 2012

All signs point to a strengthening of the housing market in New Trier Township (which is made up of Wilmette, Winnetka, Northfield, Kenilworth and Glencoe). Sales are up. Market time is down. Homes are selling closer to list price. The only lagging indictor is price, but this is beginning to improve and prices are projected to increase about 3% in 2013. The high buyer demand and low inventory of homes for sale should drive price increases in coming months.

Home Sales Trends

Sales of single family homes in 2012 were up 16% over 2011. We’re projecting an even bigger year in 2013. The only thing that will keep the market from reaching its potential will be lack of inventory of homes for sale, particularly between $500,000 and $1,200,000. So many people who bought their homes during the boom are under water on their mortgages and are reluctant to sell until prices recover.

New Trier Home Sales 2010 – 2012

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Tags: New Trier, New Trier Township, North Shore real estate trends

North Shore Housing Market Predictions for 2013

It’s a new year and you know what that means. It’s time for everyone to make their predictions about what will happen to the housing market over the next twelve months.

I’m not any better at predicting the future than anyone else, but I do read and study the economic reports and compare their conclusions to my own analysis of local market conditions. Here’s where I come out on the North Shore housing market:

1. Many buyers chasing too few houses

With the improvements in the economy, job market and consumer confidence, home buyers have jumped off the fence and are ready to take advantage of historic low interest rates and high housing affordability.

But many sellers are still under water on their loans and can’t or won’t sell at a price below what they owe, causing an imbalance in supply and demand. Ultimately this will drive prices up and economists are forecasting an increase in median prices of around 3% in 2013.

2. Good houses will go fast

The result of #1 is that the houses that are in good condition and  priced right, will literally fly off the market. On the North Shore the most active segments will be homes priced under $1,200,000, and especially around $600,000 to $800,000. Those houses will get multiple offers and will sell at or above list price in a matter of days. If you are a buyer in this price range, be prepared to make a strong offer right out of the box if you really want the house. And make sure you are pre-approved (not just pre-qualified) by your lender in advance. Your Realtor will counsel you as to how to improve your chances of winning the bidding war.

3. Upper bracket homes will be a tough sell

Unfortunately, upper bracket sellers will not enjoy the level of buyer interest we’ll see at the lower price points. There will continue to be few buyers above $2,000,000 in the coming year. Having witnessed the effects of the housing bust, buyers will be more conservative overall and more reluctant to over-buy. For perspective, the number of homes sold in 2012 above $2,000,000 was down 63% from 2007. They now represent only 2% of the market vs. 10% back in 2007. I don’t expect this to change dramatically in the coming year.

4. New construction up but hampered by lack of available land

Many builders got out of the business during the bust but those who stayed in are ramping up construction. The problem on the North Shore is that virtually all new construction is infill and there are very few buildable lots available. Couple that with increases in the cost of building materials (especially lumber) and the result will be higher priced new homes. Buyers looking for new construction are likely to get a better deal by buying newer construction (5-7 years old) vs. brand new.

The bottom line for sellers: if you have equity in your home and want to sell, now is the time. Not sure what your home is worth in the current market? Give us a call at 847-881-6657 and we’ll prepare a competitive market analysis for you.

The bottom line for buyers: the days of the deal are over. If you want to buy a home on the North Shore you’ll need to have your ducks in a row and be prepared to act quickly to get the house you want. We’d be happy to take you on our “Tour of the Shore” to familiarize you with the communities and neighborhoods and educate you on relative home values. That way you’ll know what it will take to get your dream home.

Looking for real estate on the North Shore? Click here to see homes for sale on the North Shore.

Download our Guide to Buying a Home of the North Shore here.

Get our weekly list of Best Buys on the North Shore here.

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Tags: North Shore real estate market predictions, real estate forecast