North Shore Views

Archive for January, 2010

North Shore Home Sales – 2009 Summary

Here’s the data for North Shore single family home sales for total year 2009 vs. 2008. The year-end snapshot doesn’t tell the whole story, though, since the market was pretty dead in the first half of 2009 and only started picking up in the second half of the year. So, the trend in units sold is actually much more positive than the total year number indicates. Unfortunately, the improved sales trend has also been accompanied by lower prices and longer market time.

North Shore Detached Homes Sold 2009 vs.. 2008:

	2009	2008	% Chg
Units sold	2642	2523	+5%
Avg. List Price	$756,918	$879,722	-14%
Avg. Sold Price	$627,741	$774,503	-19%
% List Price Rec’d	83%	88%	-6%
Avg. Mkt Time Closed	202 days	178 days	+13%

Source: MRED- Deemed reliable but not guaranteed

Tags: North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends

Looking for a Meaningful Way to Celebrate Martin Luther King Day?

I’ve always thought it a bit ironic that we have holidays to observe days that have special significance for our country (Martin Luther King Day, President’s Day, Memorial Day, Veteran’s Day, etc.), and yet we don’t actually observe them at all. For most of us, they’re just days off…opportunities for a long weekend in Florida or wherever. Wouldn’t it make more sense  for our kids to stay in school on those days and actually LEARN about the event or the person we are honoring?

Here’s the next best thing: if you’re lucky enough to have Martin Luther King Day off next Monday, why not take your child and participate in A Day of Inspiration and Service at  Am Shalom in Glencoe. The event is co-sponsored by Interfaith Housing Center and the Volunteer Center of New Trier and is open to the public. There are service projects to benefit the Night Ministry, Project Linus and Orphans of the Storm, as well as inspirational speakers and entertainment. You can get more information here or see the flier here.

See you there.

Tags: Glencoe, MLK Day event

New Trier High School Renovation: Yay or Nay?

On February 2 residents of New Trier Township will vote on a referendum for the renovation of New Trier Township High School. The proposal has been three years in the making and has sparked quite a bit of controversy. Several alternative plans have been explored, including a total tear-down of the Winnetka campus, expanding the Northfield campus and moving the upperclassmen there, a partial renovation of  the Winnetka campus and maintaining the status quo (making repairs to the existing plant on an as-needed basis)

In a nutshell, what’s currently being proposed is the replacement of the oldest, least accessible and least coherent buildings on New Trier’s Winnetka campus, which are on the east and west sides of the campus. The Tower and north buildings would be retained. The estimated cost of the project is $174 million and the impact to the taxpayer will amount to about $250 per $10,000 tax bill. This is the first “bricks and mortar” referendum for the Winnetka campus since 1953.

There are two web sites dedicated to the issue. Our New Trier is pro-renovation and provides some compelling arguments in favor of the project. New Trier Choices is against the project. Rationale includes project cost as well as impact of construction on surrounding homes (noise, congestion, short term property values).

I have read everything I could find on both sides of the argument and I have taken advantage of the tour of the facility that is being offered almost daily through January 30th. If you can’t make the tour in person, you can take a virtual tour here. In fact, even if you can make the physical tour, take the virtual tour first – it provides a helpful overview of what you will see and hear when you go on campus. The tour I took was led by Principal Tim Dohrer and was extremely informative. We saw all of the problem areas and the plans to address each of them. I was  impressed with the thoroughness of the analysis and work that has been done so far to explore alternatives, respond to concerns and to make this project as cost-effective as possible.

For me the facts overwhelmingly support going ahead with this project. New Trier has long been recognized as one of the best high schools in the country, and is one of the reasons many of us moved to the area. However, some of the buildings date back to the early 1900s. They are expensive and inefficient to maintain. They are not designed for modern technology or for today’s teaching methods. Much of the campus is inaccessible to those with disabilities. New Trier is one of the only high schools in the area without a field house.  If we want to continue to provide top quality education to our children we need to address this obsolescence. As for the price tag? No one wants to pay more in taxes, but we have chosen to live in one of the most expensive areas in the country. What’s another $250/year to ensure that our children and future generations have the kind of education that they deserve.

Wherever you ultimately come out, if you are a New Trier resident you owe it to yourself to become informed on the issue and to vote accordingly, because the decision will have far-reaching implications for our community and for the education of our children.

Tags: New Trier, New Trier Township, Winnetka

What's Ahead for North Shore Real Estate?

Predicting the future is popular at this time of year and, when it comes to real estate, there is no shortage of opinions about what’s ahead for 2010. Some economists, like Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors, are fairly optimistic about the housing market’s prospects. Others, like Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com, are downright pessimistic. Since real estate is my livelihood, I would like to believe Lawrence Yun, but unfortunately his track record hasn’t been all that great, so his predictions need to be taken with a grain of salt (or two).

Having read the economists’ and other experts’ reports and scrutinized the local market data, I’ve come to my own conclusions about how the North Shore will or won’t reflect what’s going on nationally:

1. On a national level, sales will continue the positive momentum begun in mid 2009, at least through May, as buyers take advantage of the tax credits, low interest rates and attractive prices. This will hold true for the North Shore of Chicago too, but much of the activity in our area will be at the lower end of the market (<$800,000). And once the tax credit expires this summer, the market will probably stall again,  at least temporarily.

2. Based on recent trends, I think that prices will decline another 2-3% over the next three to six months, before stabilizing. So, if potential sellers are waiting to see if prices will rebound before listing their homes, they are in for a long wait. It will take at least five years (and probably more) before we see prices anywhere near 2006 levels.

3. The Fed will do its darnedest keep interest rates low for as long as it can to avoid sabotaging the recovery;  but we should expect rates to rise somewhat, probably to around 6%, later in 2010.

4. Foreclosures have not been as big a problem on the North Shore as elsewhere, but we are not out of the woods yet. We will likely see an increase in short sales and foreclosures as adjustable rate mortgages reset and those who took bigger risks when the market was good find themselves unable to refinance now. Unemployment in the neighborhood of 10% will continue to plague us at least through mid-year, putting a further drag on the housing recovery.

5. New construction of spec homes will be at a virtual standstill until existing inventory works its way through the system. Builders just can’t compete with the discounted prices of distressed properties and will be unwilling to build without a buyer lined up in advance.

6. The shift away from McMansions towards smaller, more efficient and greener homes will accelerate, driven by first time buyers and downsizing empty nesters.

I certainly hope that my predictions turn out to have been too pessimistic. That is,  except the one about the McMansions. I, for one, would be happy never to see another McMansion built again.

Tags: Home prices North Shore, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate market predictions, North Shore real estate trends

Do You Know Where the Candidates Stand?

Find out at two upcoming candidate forums: PRESENTED BY THE LEAGUE OF WOMEN VOTERS WHEN: Thursday, January 7, 7 pm WHERE: New Trier High School Northfield Campus, Room C234, 7 Happ Road WHAT: U.S. 10th Congressional District Republican Candidates:  Elizabeth Coulson, Robert Dold, Arie Friedman, Dick Green, and Paul Hamann Democratic Candidates:  Julie Hamos, Elliot Richardson, and Dan Seals ——- WHEN: Sunday, January 10, 2-5 pm WHERE: Evanston Township High School 1600 Dodge (use Main Entrance) WHAT: 13th Cook County District (2 – 3 pm) and 18th Legislative District (3:30 – 5 p.m.) 13 Cook County District Candidates: Cook County District Commissioner Larry Suffredin and Democratic challenger John Michael Keefe 18th Legislative District Candidates: Robyn Gabel, Eamon Kelly, Patrick Keenan-Devlin, Edmund Moran, and Jeff Smith OPEN TO THE PUBLIC

Tags: 13th Cook County District, 18th Legislative District, North Shore local elections, U.S. 10th Congressional District candidates

Wedding Crasher No More

What’s the most elegant wedding venue on the North Shore?

Vince Vaughn would tell you it’s the Armour House at Lake Forest Academy. At least that’s where the star of “Wedding Crashers” chose to tie the knot this past weekend. The Armour House was built between 1904 and 1908 at a cost of $10 million by J. Ogden Armour (heir to the Armour Meat Packing fortune). It was purchased by Lake Forest Academy in 1947 and is now on the National Register of Historic Places.
You can read more about Vaughn’s wedding here and here.

Tags: Armour House, Lake Forest, Vince Vaughn, Wedding Crasher

The North Shore’s Oldest House

Whenever we drive by the Schmidt- Burnham log house on Willow Road, my 8 year old says, “Look Mom, there’s where you went to school when you were a kid.”  The first time she said this she was 5 or 6 and she really did think that it was an old one-room schoolhouse and that I had, in fact, gone to school there. Now, it’s just a little joke between us, a way for her to rub it in how old I am.

I think a lot of the people that drive by there every day don’t even know the story behind this little house. They probably don’t realize that it is the oldest standing structure in Cook County outside of the city of Chicago. The house was built around 1837 and was the home of the Schmidt family, immigrants from Germany. Originally the house was located on the Green Bay Trail, near what is now the corner of Winnetka Avenue and Church Road.

Anita Willets Burnham, a local artist and writer, purchased the home in 1917 for $25 and had it moved to 1407 Tower Road.  It was later donated to the Winnetka Historical Society by her daughter and moved to its current location in Crow Island Woods.  Placed on the National Register of Historic Places in 2005, the house is now open to the public and offers a glimpse into life in early Winnetka.

Tags: Anita Willets Burnham, North Shore's oldest house, Schmidt-Burnham log house, Winnetka

Why You Shouldn't Wait 'til Spring to List Your Home

Typically the real estate market is pretty dead between Thanksgiving and February, so people planning to sell in the new year usually wait until after Super Bowl Sunday to put their houses on the market. But this year will likely be different. Here’s why you should get your property listed as early as you can:

1. The extension of the first time buyer tax credit and the expansion of the tax credit to existing homeowners until April 30 means that there will be a continued influx of buyers into the market during the first quarter of 2010. Buyers who want to take advantage of the tax credit will begin looking for a new home earlier, to make sure they can find a home, arrange financing and close before the June 30 deadline. Here’s a good chart outlining the rules of the tax credit.
2. Interest rates are at or near 40 year lows right now, further stimulating buyer demand. But these rates are not likely to hold for long. While there probably won’t be a big increase in rates this year, they will start to   drift upward somewhat in the next 3-6 months.
3. Because many people will follow traditional wisdom and wait to list until later in the spring, you will have less competition if you can get a jump on them. People who are willing to brave single digit temps to look at houses are SERIOUS buyers.

If you’re thinking and hoping that prices might improve  if you wait a little longer, forget it. There’s a good chance that prices still have a little bit farther to fall before stabilizing.  And, even if prices are at or near the bottom, it is unlikely that we will see any upward movement in prices until later in the year. Real estate prices don’t tend to rebound in a “V” shape but rather in a  “U” shape with a wide trough before slowly starting to climb again.

Tags: home buyer tax credit, home selling tips, when to list your home for sale

North Shore Market Update – December 2009

In December 2009 sales of single family homes on the North Shore were up 32% vs. December 2008, while average prices were down 8%. Market time increased 21% to 200 days for sold properties.

Average prices declined in all towns except Glenview and Glencoe. Winnetka and Northfield had the largest price declines AND the largest increase in units sold, so price does seem to be the biggest driver in the market today.

Wilmette was the only town were there were fewer units sold in 2009 than 2008.

December 2009 vs. Year Ago*

	Units Sold	Avg. Price	Market Time
Town	% Change	% Chg	% Chg
Evanston	6%	-24%	20%
Wilmette	-22%	-14%	28%
Glenview	25%	16%	19%
Northfield	200%	-73%	159%
Winnetka	138%	-39%	-1%
Glencoe	38%	15%	69%
Highland Park	22%	-4%	-18%
Lake Forest	67%	-1%	25%
North Shore	32%	-8%	21%

* Single family homes (Source: MRED – Deemed reliable but not guaranteed)

Tags: Evanston, Glencoe, Glenview, Highland Park, Kenilworth, Lake Forest, North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, North Shore sales trends, Northfield, Wilmette, Winnetka

Wilmette Housing Trends 2007-2009

For all the data wonks in Wilmette, here are three years of housing data for our town as a whole and for some of the individual neighborhoods. The source is MRED, which is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Also, note that the data for the specific neighborhoods may not reflect all activity…unless the neighborhood was called out in the MLS listing, the transaction would only show up in the total Wilmette numbers.

Wilmette

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold) 000’s	Avg. Sales Price 000’s	Sold /List Price	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	316	$1,023.1	$970.8	95%	132
2008	244	$984.7	$912.4	93%	150
2009	214	$834.1	$770.4	92%	168

McKenzie

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List Price	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	5	$1,189.8	$1,155.0	97%	74
2008	2	$709.4	$677.5	96%	65
2009	2	$680.0	$687.5	101%	11

Kenilworth Gardens

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List Price	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	15	$1,005.8	$982.3	98%	38
2008	10	1,044.1	982.9	94%	119
2009	17	835.2	778.2	93%	140

Indian Hill Estates

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List Price	Days on Market  (Sold)
2007	10	$1,385.4	$1,287.9	93%	125
2008	1	1,225.0	1,130.0	92%	158
2009	8	1,261.0	1,132.8	90%	338

The CAGE

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	4	$1,126.0	$1,075.8	96%	48
2008	5	1,301.0	1,225.8	94%	168
2009	9	1,109.5	1,019.2	92%	90

East Wilmette

Year	Units Sold	Avg. List Price (Sold)	Avg. Sales Price	Sold/List	Days on Market (Sold)
2007	15	$1,165.7	$1,100.6	94%	102
2008	8	2,062.4	1,932.4	94%	124
2009	6	1,237.3	1,149.4	93%	83

Tags: North Shore market data, North Shore real estate trends, Wilmette, Wilmette neighborhoods